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Prediction for CME (2021-09-28T07:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-09-28T07:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17845/-1
CME Note: CME source was an eruption from AR2871 around 2021-09-28T05:36Z. This eruption was associated with a C1.6 flare that started at 2021-09-28T05:54Z and peaked at 2021-09-28T06:34Z. From Lan Jian: there is a nice ICME on Oct 1-2. The flux rope part starts at about 12:44 on Oct 1 and sends at about 12:44 on Oct 2. I don’t see any associated shock. If we need to set a start time for the sheath region, I would set at about 14:15 on Sept 30.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-09-30T14:15Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-09-30T22:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note: 
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2-CME simulation

CME input parameters 

1) CME Event ID: A7828
Start Date/Time: 2021-09-28 11:00:00Z 
Latitude: -2°
Longitude: 7°
Half Angle: 37°
Radial Velocity: 811 km/s
This CME was simulated together with a slower CME from 2021-09-27 (parameters below) and was predicted to overtake the earlier CME.

2) CME Event ID: A7827
Start Date/Time: 2021-09-27 18:25:00Z 
Latitude: -9°
Longitude: 44°
Half Angle: 33°
Radial Velocity: 565 km/s

Notes:
From Forecast Discussion issued: 2021 Sep 29 1230 UTC
.24 hr Summary...
The partial, asymmetric halo CME produced by Region 2871 (S28W60,
Axx/alpha) early on the 28th was modeled with a speed of 811 km/s and is
expected to overtake the 27th Sep CME, arriving late on 30 Sep/early on
01 Oct.
Geospace forecast from Forecast Discussion issued: Sep 30 0030 UTC
Initially an increase to active
levels is expected on 30 Sep, although G1 (Minor) storming cannot be
entirely ruled out. Nonetheless the best chance for observing G1
geomagnetic storms remains early on 01 Oct when CME effects are at their
greatest.
Lead Time: 48.77 hour(s)
Difference: -7.75 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2021-09-28T13:29Z
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